The recently released "Intel 471: 2026 Cyber Threat Trends & Outlook" report serves as a reminder that while cybersecurity professionals are getting better at managing disruption, adversaries are getting better at adapting. For the modern cybersecurity professional, the report isn't just a collection of statistics; it is a blueprint for a mandatory shift from a "prevention-first" mindset to one of engineered resilience.
For the various stakeholders in the digital ecosystem, there appears to be a new normal for CISOs and their teams.
For the leadership and the practitioners "in the trenches," the report highlights several critical tactical shifts.
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The rise of ClickFix: Attackers have moved away from complex malware delivery to "low-friction" social engineering like ClickFix, which uses deceptive browser or system update prompts to trick users into executing malicious commands. Teams must move beyond traditional "phishing training" to address these cross-platform (Windows and macOS) lures.
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Engineering resilience: Prevention is no longer the sole measure of success. CISOs must focus on how fast risk spreads across their environment and how effectively their teams can contain and recover from incidents.
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AI as a force multiplier: While "AI malware" remains more marketing than reality, AI is being used heavily as an efficiency upgrade for phishing, vishing, and business email compromise (BEC). Expect more sophisticated, multilingual, and context-aware lures that are nearly impossible to distinguish from legitimate communication.
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Supply chain as a shortcut: The enterprise threat landscape is defined by interconnection. One organization's vulnerability is now a shortcut to hundreds of others. Threat actors like CLOP, Qilin, and SP1D3R HUNTERS are increasingly targeting software supply chains, service providers (MSPs), and developer workflows (CI/CD) to achieve "outsized impact". A single point of trust is now a massive downstream risk.
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The ransom dilemma: New legislation (such as in Australia and the UK) is making ransom reporting mandatory and discouraging payments. In response, extortion groups are hiring data analysts to find new ways to pressure organizations, such as pinpointing high-value weaknesses or threatening individual employees.
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Fragmentation of the underground: Coordinated law enforcement actions (such as Operation Endgame and Operation Talent) have fractured the cybercrime community. While this disrupts their operations, it also leads to a more chaotic and unpredictable environment as actors migrate between short-lived forums.
"Disruption is rarely contained to a single incident," said said Michael DeBolt, President and Chief Intelligence Officer at Intel471. "Instead, threat actors capitalize on relationships between platforms, suppliers, identities, and the automated processes that modern organizations have come to depend on to move faster and further. Adversaries are adept at refining proven tactics into repeatable playbooks to apply across broader ecosystems, converting single points of trust into outsized downstream impact."
DeBolt continued, "This reality has implications for every organization. Prevention remains essential, but today’s measure of success must also include resilience. Leaders must also consider how fast risk spreads, how broadly it can reach, and how effectively teams can respond and recover. In 2026, resilience must be engineered across every system and partnership, enabling early identification, rapid containment, and confident recovery from the escalating volume of cyber incidents."
While this is a professional report, the "downstream impact" is felt most acutely by the average user.
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Mobile and IoT vulnerability: Consumers face a persistent threat from mobile malware (like SpyNote and Antidot) and the exploitation of poorly secured Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices.
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The deepfake threat: The report predicts a surge in deepfake-enabled impersonation and AI-voiced fraud targeting high-value individuals and consumers alike.
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Digital trust and information integrity: As hacktivism becomes an extension of state power, consumers will be subjected to more frequent synthetic media and misinformation campaigns designed to exploit geopolitical flashpoints and social justice debates.
Some key snippets from the report:
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"Profit-sharing in extortion operations often causes internal and external conflicts, as the lure of financial gain overrides loyalty. This cutthroat environment means reputation is secondary to personal enrichment, leading team members to betray cohorts, jeopardizing operations, exposing data, or compromising infrastructure. While disruption can be temporary, it might lead to a group’s seizure, which competitors exploit. Demonstrating resilience and power against rivals attracts new affiliates. Conversely, setbacks such as arrests, leaks or internal conflicts make a group vulnerable to competitors recruiting members or taking over systems."
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"Supply chain attacks are highly favored by extortion groups due to their superior efficiency, scalability, and profitability compared to directly targeting individual organizations. This strategy involves compromising a single entity—such as a vendor, software provider, or managed service provider (MSP)—to gain access to a multitude of downstream victims. This approach leverages established trust, allowing attackers to bypass robust defenses and achieve a much greater impact with significantly less effort."
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"We expect extortion to remain the top threat in 2026, which is evident by this year's significant increase of breaches compared to 2024. The demonstrable success of several high-profile supply chain attacks conducted by the CLOP and Qilin gangs provides a powerful example and likely will influence the strategic focus of other ransomware and data extortion groups. The Qilin RaaS program likely will continue to dominate the extortion market, enhancing its offerings and actively recruiting new affiliates. Finally, the shift in legislation regarding extortion payments likely will reduce companies’ willingness to pay ransoms. Therefore, ransomware and data extortion groups likely will reconsider their victim pressure strategies and add new services to their programs."
On the prediction front, Intel 471 forecasts that supply chain attacks will pick up due to the increasing prevalence of "worm-like automation"; that ransomware payments will decline as more organizations exhibit a reluctance to pay, forcing threat actors to rethink their pressure tactics; and that AI will remain only "a force multiplier" rather than "the core driver" of cyberattacks.
“There is little incentive for profit-driven adversaries to adopt malware dependent on LLMs due to increased cost, complexity, and reliance on external infrastructure, especially when proven loaders or stealers remain effective,” Intel 471 concluded. "We predict targeted escalation in areas where AI demonstrably increases the return on investment—such as deepfake-driven impersonation, AI-generated voice fraud targeting high-value individuals, and amplified synthetic media in influence operations."
